Japanese companies’ mid-term management plans often become a formality when faced with unexpected events, and relying solely on forecasts based on past data is not enough to chart a path for growth. This article introduces the idea of using active inference as a form of future thinking.
Amid growing uncertainty in the VUCA environment, mid-term management plans can become a formality and cease to function when confronted with unexpected events. It has been pointed out that their original purpose is not being fulfilled, affecting operations on the front lines as well.
Companies are reportedly finding it increasingly difficult to chart business growth even by building on past data and demand forecasts. There is a view that a data-driven, forecasting-based approach alone cannot keep pace with strategy design in highly volatile markets.
In response, future thinking has been proposed as a way of moving beyond forecasting and viewing the future through “active inference.” The emphasis is on assuming that change is constant, testing hypotheses, and flexibly adjusting actions.