The morning dollar-yen forecast assumes a range of ¥157.3 to ¥158.5. The effects of waning FRB rate-hike expectations and the riots in France are viewed as limited, while higher oil prices may weigh on the yen but are unlikely to establish a clear market direction.
Prepared at 7:45 on 19 October 2026. The dollar-yen forecast range was ¥157.300-¥158.500.
A review of the previous day noted periods of dollar selling as comments related to the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) reduced expectations for additional rate hikes. However, yen selling driven by higher oil prices was expected to keep trading around ¥158.
There were periods when protest demonstrations in Paris, France, developed into riots, but the view was expressed that they were not a decisive blow at this point. WTI crude oil at times rose into the $101 range, with inflation concerns and long-term interest-rate trends cited as factors supporting the dollar.
The market is expected to continue seeking direction mainly within a range from the latter half of the ¥157 area to the first half of the ¥158 area, while watching developments involving the US and Japanese authorities and energy markets.