As expectations grow that the Nikkei 225 will remain around ¥65,000 toward year-end, Takatoshi Itoshima, senior fellow at Pictet Japan, discussed the outlook for share prices in 2026 and the key points to watch.
The Nikkei 225 is currently expected to remain stuck in the ¥60,000 range, with some forecasting a level of ¥65,000 at the end of 2026. Senior fellow Takatoshi Itoshima said he wanted to assess developments from next year onward.
The outlook is for the market to remain weighed down toward year-end, with some expecting ¥65,000 to be the Nikkei 225's destination. Economic conditions and corporate earnings are expected to be the focus.
The Iranian situation was cited as a key factor. If elevated oil prices and inflation in the US continue, the US 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 5.5%, it was noted. Concern was expressed over a situation in which long-term interest rates exceed the earnings yield on equities.