The Nikkei 225 remains in a correction phase after undergoing a correction of approximately 20% from its all-time high. The latest estimates suggest that the correction of the overshoot may have progressed substantially.
The day after pointing out in a 24 June report that a "healthy correction" could occur, the Nikkei 225 entered a correction phase after reaching an all-time high.
On 6 November, the closing price recovered from below ¥60,000 for the first time in approximately 5 and a half months, reaching ¥57,434, while the decline from the peak had reached 20.6%, indicating that the correction is still continuing.
The estimates for the Nikkei 225 shown in the charts consist of two measures: Estimate (1), which extends the data used for the previous estimate, and Estimate (2), which uses logarithmic differences. Both show only small deviations from the actual results, suggesting that the rise above ¥70,000 seen during the summer was an overshoot.
In a comparison of the new estimates (Estimates 1 and 2) with the actual results, both of the latest estimates are approximately ¥58,000, showing little difference from the closing price of ¥58,775 on 9 November. This suggests that the correction of the overshoot has probably progressed substantially.
Depending on future updates to the estimates and trends in the indicators underlying them, the duration of the Nikkei 225's correction and the timing of its recovery may change.