The Nikkei is down approximately 20%, raising the prospect of entering a bear market. Japanese stocks' margin-buying balance is approaching historic levels, while Russia's seizure of JT assets is also affecting market sentiment.
The Nikkei Stock Average fell approximately 20.63% from its June high of ¥72,366 to the closing price of ¥57,434 on 6 November, approaching the level generally regarded as a threshold for entering a bear market. Although a recovery phase has emerged, the momentum of the rebound remains limited. In the latter part of the analysis, a 50% retracement of the long-term rise is cited as a potential guide to where the decline may bottom, and further market movements could emerge again depending on future developments.
The margin-buying balance reached ¥6.5058 trillion at the end of October, and the margin trading ratio exceeded 10 times. Although the balance has declined from the level above the previous record high of ¥7.0167 trillion on 26 June, selling pressure is expected to remain strong. Among individual stocks, Kioxia HD's margin-buying balance stood at 52.82 million shares, near a record high.
Russia announced that it would place under domestic administration the assets of seven overseas subsidiaries owned by JT International, the overseas subsidiary of Japan Tobacco (JT). Japan's government has protested and demanded that the measure be revoked, which involves the removal of management rights and the seizure of the assets, but its impact could extend to other Japanese companies as well.