A tendency for USD/JPY to move in one direction after Labor Day has been observed in the past. The movements in 2023 and 2022, price action in 2024 and factors behind the delay in 2025 are reviewed.
Labor Day falls around the first Monday of September, and in the past USD/JPY has often made a major one-way move shortly afterward. Labor Day is scheduled for 7 September in both 2025 and 2026. The move is thought to be attributable to the effective recovery in risk appetite after the summer holidays, while maintaining positions for longer may encourage a one-way shift in the market.
In 2023, USD/JPY broke out of its range to the upside after Labor Day, leading to a move that tested the ¥150 level by October. In 2022, USD/JPY broke above ¥140 after Labor Day and at one point came close to ¥145, during a period when the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities was being flagged.
In 2024, USD/JPY experienced a sharp decline of approximately ¥20 during the summer. After Labor Day, however, the US dollar weakened and the yen strengthened again, with USD/JPY at one point falling below the ¥141 level and moving to ¥139. The move appeared to represent a renewed shift after the summer’s yen-selling bubble had subsided.
In 2025, the post-Labor Day move was delayed, with momentum picking up from late September onward and attention focused on the late-stage price action. The departure of the Ishiba (石破) administration and developments in the LDP leadership election had an impact, and there was speculation that after Takaichi (高市) became LDP president in October, USD/JPY moved at times toward a stronger US dollar and weaker yen.