Goldman Sachs has pointed to the possibility that North Sea Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel if average oil production in the Gulf falls below pre-conflict levels. Expectations for rate hikes by the US, ECB and Bank of Japan are the focus of the market.
Views on crude oil prices and inflationary factors have resurfaced, with some pointing to the possibility that North Sea Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel if average oil production in the Gulf remains below pre-conflict levels. This has fueled broader expectations that countries will consider raising their policy rates.
UBS Global Wealth Management said in a report on the 4th that it expects the US to raise rates by 25 basis points at each of the FOMC meetings on 15–16 September and 8–9 December.
Deutsche Bank said on the 4th that, in addition to a rate hike on 10 September, the ECB is expected to implement an additional rate hike at its Governing Council meeting on 16–17 December. Against the backdrop of persistently high crude oil prices, the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan has come into focus, while the postwar economic expansion, the longest on record, is expected to continue.
The August domestic corporate goods price index (preliminary figure, 2020 average = 100) stood at 136.1, up 7.6% year on year. The preliminary July reading of the Index of Business Conditions rose, and the Bank of Japan’s response will be a focus depending on developments ahead.