USD/JPY is expected to trade in a range of ¥152.50 to ¥156.50 next week, with the BOJ's rate hike, US interest-rate trends and the FOMC decision likely to be pivotal for the yen. The FOMC is reportedly scheduled for the 16th, and the BOJ policy meeting for the 17th–18th.
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a range of ¥152.50–¥156.50 next week, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 16th and the BOJ monetary policy meeting scheduled for the 17th–18th. The market has almost fully priced in a 0.25-percentage-point BOJ rate hike, but some observers point out that yen buying could run its course on the rate-hike decision alone, while the FOMC is likely to determine the direction of US yields and the dollar.
This week, USD/JPY briefly fell to ¥152.89, and its rebound was limited even after August US employment data beat market expectations. After expectations of an additional BOJ rate hike and the unwinding of yen carry trades pushed up the yen, the pair has continued to fluctuate depending on US interest-rate trends.
The US CPI due on the 11th had not been released as of press time, and expectations for an FOMC rate hike could change depending on PPI and energy-price trends. If the FOMC hikes rates, this would support US yields and the dollar. Even if it holds rates steady, discussion of scope for additional rate hikes could affect USD/JPY.
In technical analysis, the key daily moving averages are above the current price. ¥155.00–¥155.22 and ¥156.50–¥156.65 are cited as the next resistance levels for a rebound. On the downside, a break below ¥152.89 would shift focus to the ¥152.50 lower bound of the range, and a downside break could create further room for declines. Key events next week include the various indicators scheduled for 15–18 September and the outcome of the BOJ meeting.
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facts=[{"k":"Range","v":"USD/JPY is expected to trade in a range of ¥152.50–¥156.50 next week"},{"k":"Schedule","v":"The FOMC meets on the 16th, and the BOJ policy meeting runs from the 17th to the 18th"},{"k":"Rate hike","v":"The BOJ's 0.25-percentage-point rate hike is seen as almost certain"},{"k":"Indicator","v":"CPI release on the 11th not yet published"},{"k":"Event","v":"US yields rise following an upside surprise in US PPI"}]
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