In October's US stock market, the focus will be on macroeconomic indicators and earnings and events involving AI-related companies. Micron's earnings, Tesla's new model announcement, NVIDIA's GTC Berlin, and releases of the FOMC decision, CPI, PCE and GDP are among the market's key points of interest.
On the macroeconomic front, October will be a period in which the FOMC's policy and the outlook for interest-rate hikes are reassessed following releases including the employment report and consumer price index. In particular, the employment report could affect US Treasury yields and the valuations of growth stocks.
On the earnings front, Micron Technology will report results at the end of September, followed in quick succession by ASML and TSM. Trends in AI hardware demand and the sustainability of capital investment are expected to have a direct bearing on supply-demand conditions and price movements in semiconductor-related stocks.
In the AI sector, investor briefings by Marvell Technology Group, NVIDIA's GTC Berlin and Oracle's AI World will take place around the same time. The two-pronged focus on AI factories and applications for AI companies will attract market attention and provide clues to changes in the industrial structure.
NVIDIA CEO's keynote is scheduled for GTC Berlin late in the month, while Oracle's AI World will also be held in Las Vegas. Through these events, attention will focus on how far growth in AI investment is spreading to actual demand and corporate IT spending.
October's focus will shift from interest-rate-driven markets to earnings validation, with the FOMC's monetary policy decision and the review of third-quarter results determining the market's direction. The monetization of AI investment and trends in demand for AI infrastructure could shape the market's main drivers from November onward.