As global demand for high-performance batteries is expected to expand to more than 6.8 TWh by 2035, an analysis indicates that gigafactory mass production starts are delayed by an average of 6-9 months, outlining the key points regarding delay risks and countermeasures.
Global demand for high-performance batteries is currently approximately 1.6 TWh and is forecast to expand to more than 6.8 TWh by 2035. Gigafactories supporting this demand are being built in various locations, but cases in which mass production starts later than planned are increasing. Construction costs per plant are said to range from $1 billion to $7 billion, representing a substantial investment.
Delays to the start of mass production are estimated at an average of 6-9 months. At an NMC811 cell plant with a capacity of 40 GWh, a delay of just 6 months carries a risk of approximately $250 million in value destruction. Meanwhile, leading companies are reaching the start of mass production within 18-24 months of beginning construction, making plant ramp-up capability an increasingly important competitive differentiator.
The factors behind the delays include the difficulty of advancing product development, manufacturing processes and plant design in parallel, a shortage of personnel, supply chains concentrated in Asia, and inadequate integrated management of multiple stakeholders, including contractors and regulatory compliance.
The success factors for leading companies are identified as personnel and organizational capabilities, execution management systems, and optimization of design and construction. The analysis points to more advanced process planning using AI and generative AI as key to shortening construction timelines and maximizing value. For Japanese companies, it suggests that strengthening ramp-up capabilities is important, including support for overseas plant construction, compliance with local regulations, and interface management among multiple suppliers.