USD/JPY is expected to remain within a range in the ¥155 area this week, while concerns about intervention near ¥158 could cap further gains. The period covered is 21 to 28 September 2026.
The period covered is 21 to 28 September 2026. USD/JPY is expected to trade in a range of ¥155.00 to ¥158.00, with views of a renewed weakening of the yen against a backdrop of elevated US interest rates, while concerns about intervention near ¥158 could cap the upside. Market participants will be watching US interest rates, IMM positioning and the strength of intervention concerns around ¥158.
Looking back at the previous week, USD/JPY rose to ¥158.05 before plunging back to the ¥156 level, then traded again around the mid-to-high ¥156 range. This week, the key points are whether the pair can hold above the ¥156 level, recover the 25-day moving average at ¥157.16 and how strong intervention concerns are near ¥158.
US interest rates will remain a key market driver, with pricing for an October rate hike reaching about 55%. IMM positioning showed a net yen long position of 120,359 contracts, and the gap between long and short positions could influence the next market move. Crude oil prices have fallen to the ¥101 level, but a renewed rise could contribute to a stronger dollar and a weaker yen.
From a technical perspective, holding support around ¥155.87 to ¥156.00 and recovering the 25-day moving average at ¥157.16 will be important. Upside could become more difficult around ¥158.00 to ¥158.42, and depending on upcoming events, there is a risk that the range could break.