Dollar-yen rose into the ¥158 range today, and the yen's downtrend strengthened in early New York trading as fourth-quarter trading began. The market also tested a recovery above the 200-day moving average, while a wait-and-see stance spread ahead of the US employment report.
The dollar strengthened in today's foreign exchange market as trading entered the fourth quarter, with dollar-yen briefly rising to the mid-¥158 range. The market tested a recovery after the impact of verbal intervention accompanying Prime Minister Takaichi's visit to the United States, while trading in the Japanese market continued to favour a weaker yen.
The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions and the BOJ Tankan did not appear to encourage expectations of an additional rate hike in October. In short-term markets, the probability of a rate hike at the policy meeting at the end of this month remains low, which is cited as a factor driving yen weakness.
Sell orders are reported above the 200-day moving average, and the market appears strongly inclined to wait for the US employment report due tomorrow. The previous day's downside surprise in the PCE price index is viewed as having reduced expectations of an October rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
However, uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran and concerns over prolonged global inflation remain persistent. Expectations are spreading that the Federal Reserve will raise rates once by year-end and approximately 3 times next year, and the dollar's potential for further gains remains in focus.