Morning USD/JPY forecast: Dollar/yen rebounds amid higher crude oil prices; effect of verbal intervention is temporary 2026/9/29

The story

Yesterday, USD/JPY posted a modest gain of less than 0.1% based on the closing price. It fell to around ¥156.50, but rebounded against a backdrop of higher crude oil prices and recovered to the ¥157 range.

The market took note of Finance Vice-Minister Mimura (三村)'s remarks that Japan and the United States had shared concerns over the yen's undervaluation, prompting the view that the downward pressure on the yen based on fundamentals has not completely disappeared.

With US long-term interest rates rising as higher crude oil prices persist, the view that the dollar's strength and the yen's weakness will not easily change is prevailing.

If crude oil prices continue to rise today, USD/JPY is expected to move toward a recovery to the ¥158 range, while expectations for additional Fed rate hikes are also a focus.

At a glance

USD/JPY forecast range¥156.500-158.200

Previous day's movementA modest gain of less than 0.1% based on the closing price, rebounding from around ¥156.50

Key commentFinance Vice-Minister Mimura (三村) said that the Japanese and US governments had shared concerns over the yen's undervaluation

Key factorUS long-term interest rates are rising against a backdrop of higher crude oil prices, with the view prevailing that the dollar's strength and the yen's weakness will continue

FocusAttention is focused on the August US JOLTS job openings and September consumer confidence index during New York trading

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Reference information generated from public sources. It does not solicit or advise on investments. Prices are 15-minute delayed.