9M results are on track, but securing operating profit in Q4 is the focus

Operating revenue for the nine months of the fiscal year ending September 2026 was ¥931,672 million, and operating profit was ¥14,428 million. The full-year forecasts are operating revenue of ¥1,252,000 million and operating profit of ¥17,500 million, putting progress at 74.4% and 82.4%, respectively. Operating revenue is almost in line with the 75% of the fiscal year that has elapsed, while operating profit is ahead of revenue progress. As of Q3, it is difficult to say that results have deviated significantly from the company's plan.

The operating revenue required in Q4 to meet the plan is ¥320,328 million. Q4 of the previous fiscal year generated ¥305,431 million, calculated by subtracting nine-month operating revenue of ¥908,834 million from full-year operating revenue of ¥1,214,265 million. Accordingly, revenue this year needs to increase by approximately 4.9% year on year. Operating profit of ¥3,072 million would be sufficient, meaning the full-year forecast could be met even if Q4 profit falls approximately 23.2% below the ¥3,999 million recorded in the previous year's Q4.

This gap means there is more room to meet the profit plan than the revenue plan. The full-year forecast calls for operating revenue to increase 3.1% from the previous year's actual result and operating profit to decline 3.7%, and the company has not revised its earnings forecast as of Q3. The company cited increased transactions, mainly with existing customers, as a factor behind the nine-month increase in operating revenue, but has not disclosed the contribution by amount, transaction volumes, unit prices or logistics costs.

At the next earnings announcement, the first point to confirm will be whether operating revenue reached ¥320,328 million, followed by whether the ¥3,072 million operating profit was secured through price revisions, product mix or restraint in logistics and personnel costs. Even if operating profit exceeds plan, if a revenue shortfall was merely offset by cost reductions, the sustainability of growth in the following fiscal year will be limited.