First-half progress at approximately 46.5% of full-year forecast; can seasonality be captured in Q3?

First-half FY2026 revenue was ¥19,824 million, up 2.7% year on year; operating profit was ¥7,357 million, up 3.9%; ordinary profit was ¥7,400 million, up 4.6%; and interim net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥4,940 million, up 2.4%. Although revenue and operating profit growth was modest, all major profit measures increased, securing underlying progress toward the full-year forecast as of the first half.

The full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥42,597 million, operating profit of ¥15,827 million, ordinary profit of ¥15,860 million, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥10,792 million. First-half progress was approximately 46.5%, 46.5%, 46.7%, and 45.8%, respectively. To meet the full-year forecasts, the company must generate revenue of ¥22,773 million and operating profit of ¥8,470 million in the second half. First-half progress alone is approximately 3.5 percentage points below 50%, but the company explains that revenue and cost of sales in its amusement park business, including outdoor pool operations, are heavily weighted toward Q3. It is therefore inappropriate to judge that the full-year forecast will be missed based solely on simple half-year progress.

At the same time, because Q3 has strong seasonality, it is also the period when visitor numbers and weather impacts are most readily reflected in consolidated results. Q1 revenue was ¥9,366 million and operating profit was ¥3,239 million, so revenue and operating profit for Q2 alone, calculated from the difference between these figures and the first-half totals, were approximately ¥10,458 million and ¥4,118 million, respectively. In Q3, the key issues are whether the company can capture seasonal demand beyond these levels and whether increased visitor numbers can absorb higher personnel, repair, and operating costs.

At the next earnings release, the first point to confirm will be whether the full-year forecasts of ¥42,597 million in revenue and ¥15,827 million in operating profit are maintained or revised. This should be followed by comparing Q3 results with the gap to the full-year forecasts, including visitor numbers at Tokyo Summerland, amusement park revenue and segment profit or loss, the number of Oi Racecourse meeting days, and the number of SPAT4 sales days and races. In particular, the key question is whether first-half revenue and profit growth is translating into profit expansion driven by Q3 seasonality, or is dependent solely on growth in the public racing business.