Will the early progress in operating profit be sustained in FY2027-H1?

Revenue in Q1 of the fiscal year ending February 2027 was ¥24,138 million, and operating profit was ¥1,729 million. Against full-year forecasts of ¥100,000 million for revenue and ¥3,700 million for operating profit, simple progress rates are therefore 24.1% and 46.7%, respectively. Revenue is close to the 25.0% of the fiscal year elapsed, while operating profit has already reached nearly half of the annual plan, indicating that profit recognition is weighted earlier than revenue recognition.

At the end of Q1, the amounts remaining against the full-year forecasts were ¥75,862 million for revenue and ¥1,971 million for operating profit. Accordingly, the H1 results should be assessed not only on a year-on-year basis, but also against mechanical midpoints: whether revenue is approaching 50% of the full-year plan and whether operating profit exceeds ¥1,850 million, or 50% of the ¥3,700 million forecast. However, the company has not disclosed H1-specific plan figures incorporating seasonality, so 50% is only a comparative benchmark, not a company target.

Compared with FY2026 results, the FY2027 revenue forecast of ¥100,000 million represents growth of only 1.8% from revenue of ¥98,249 million. By contrast, operating profit is planned to decline 40.1%, from ¥6,173 million in FY2026 to ¥3,700 million, while profit attributable to owners of the parent is planned to decline 58.0%, from ¥5,236 million to ¥2,200 million. As of H1, it remains necessary to determine whether the Q1 increase in operating profit reflects the timing of successful productions and performances, or whether profit at a level exceeding the full-year decline plan can be sustained.

Q1 profit growth was supported by operating profit of ¥1,351 million in the theatrical business and ¥1,387 million in the real estate business, while operating profit in the video-related business was only ¥16 million. Therefore, H1 should be assessed by segment, not only on the cumulative consolidated operating-profit figure, to determine whether the theatrical business remains strong, whether profit in the video-related business has recovered, and whether the decline in real estate profit has widened.

The Q1 earnings release contained no revision to the full-year earnings forecast, and the earnings presentation did not show progress rates against the forecast or the company’s own assessment of its plan. In the H1 results, key points will include whether the company provides a specific assessment of the ¥3,700 million operating-profit forecast, the operating profit required in the second half, and the assumptions underlying maintenance of the forecast.