FY2026 full-year outlook hinges on a 4Q revenue ramp and where profit ultimately lands

Revenue for the 3Q cumulative period of the fiscal year ending September 2026 was ¥23,277 million, up 4.4% year on year, while operating profit was ¥2,273 million, down 3.0%. The full-year forecasts are ¥31,500 million for revenue and ¥2,700 million for operating profit, implying progress rates of 73.9% and 84.2%, respectively. Revenue is about 1.1 percentage points below the 75% mark after three quarters, while most of the full-year operating profit forecast has already been generated.

Simply subtracting the 3Q cumulative results from the full-year forecasts leaves required 4Q revenue of ¥8,223 million and operating profit of ¥427 million. FY2025 full-year revenue was ¥29,910 million and 3Q cumulative revenue was ¥22,306 million, implying year-ago 4Q revenue of ¥7,604 million. Meeting this year's forecast requires revenue to exceed the year-ago 4Q by ¥619 million, or 8.1%, while operating profit need only be ¥427 million, below the ¥603 million difference between FY2025 full-year operating profit of ¥2,946 million and 3Q cumulative operating profit of ¥2,343 million. This asymmetry between the required revenue and profit levels will be a key 4Q monitoring point.

The 2Q operating profit forecast was a range of ¥3,100 million to ¥3,500 million, but it was lowered to ¥2,700 million as of 3Q. The company cited development costs for the launch of its next-generation cloud-based claims system and the cost burden associated with expanding prefecture-level collaboration for “LunaLuna Mirai Support.” The 3Q presentation materials showed year-on-year increases of ¥566 million in cost of sales and ¥475 million in SG&A, including increases of ¥172 million in personnel expenses, ¥200 million in payment fees and ¥208 million in outsourcing costs. However, the amount of development costs itself was not disclosed.

At the next results announcement, it will be necessary to confirm not only whether 4Q revenue of ¥8,223 million and operating profit of ¥427 million were actually exceeded, but also how much the Healthcare and School DX businesses made up for any revenue shortfall. The 3Q presentation materials do not show progress rates against the full-year forecast or the company's own assessment of its achievability. Accordingly, additional disclosure of segment revenue and profit for 4Q, actual development and SG&A expenses, and the factors behind any variance from the full-year forecast will be important.