The focus is on verifying whether the downward revision to H1 ordinary profit reflects timing differences rather than weaker demand

In the earnings forecast revision on 19 October, the consolidated ordinary profit forecast for FY2027-H1 was cut by ¥120 million, or 54.5%, from ¥220 million to ¥100 million. Ordinary profit in the same period of the previous year was ¥290 million, so the revised forecast represents a substantial year-on-year decline. Meanwhile, the FY2027 full-year ordinary profit forecast was maintained at ¥400 million. The company is treating the H1 shortfall not as a deterioration in full-year performance but as a shift in the timing of revenue recognition into H2.

In FY2027-Q1, sales were ¥988 million, operating profit was ¥51 million, ordinary profit was ¥153 million and net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥105 million. Simply subtracting the Q1 ordinary profit of ¥153 million from the revised H1 ordinary profit forecast of ¥100 million implies an ordinary loss of approximately ¥53 million in Q2. This does not mean that the company has explicitly forecast a Q2 loss, but it is an important arithmetic point to verify in the H1 results. I will check how much the timing of outsourcing costs and cargo arrivals reduced profit.

According to the company, the downward revision resulted from the arrival of some bulk cargo being pushed into the second half, the collection of special handling fees related to tank operations in the liquid cargo segment being delayed until H2, and outsourcing costs being recognized in H1 because of work schedules. However, the information currently disclosed does not allow the delayed cargo volume, special handling fee amount or increase in outsourcing costs to be confirmed individually. In the H1 results, it will be important to determine whether revenue and profit can be broken down by cargo volume, handling fees and outsourcing costs.

Assuming full-year ordinary profit of ¥400 million, H2 would need to generate ¥300 million if H1 ordinary profit is ¥100 million. This is close to FY2026 full-year ordinary profit of ¥404 million and requires more than a simple seasonal recovery in H2. In the next results, I will track whether the recovery in bulk-cargo arrivals actually increases handling volumes, whether the special handling fees for liquid cargo have been collected, and whether the basis for maintaining the full-year forecast is explained by segment.