Can first-half progress support the unchanged full-year forecast?

Consolidated net sales for the first quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2027 were ¥6,491 million, operating profit was ¥1,698 million, ordinary profit was ¥1,688 million and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥748 million. Year on year, these declined by 10.4%, 8.5%, 8.9% and 14.8%, respectively, indicating lower sales and profit at face value.

The company has left its full-year forecasts unchanged at ¥27,370 million in net sales, ¥7,660 million in operating profit, ¥7,630 million in ordinary profit and ¥3,230 million in net income. First-quarter progress against the full-year forecasts was 23.7% for net sales, 22.2% for operating profit, 22.1% for ordinary profit and 23.2% for net income, none of which was substantially below the 25% quarterly elapsed rate. However, this is a simple comparison that does not take seasonality into account, so performance through the first half needs to be reviewed.

Using 50% of the full-year forecast as a simple first-half benchmark, net sales of ¥13,685 million, operating profit of ¥3,830 million and net income of ¥1,615 million would serve as reference points. These are not the company's first-half forecasts, but benchmarks obtained by mechanically dividing the full-year forecasts in half. The factors behind the first-quarter decline in sales were the reversal of rental-apartment sales recorded in the same quarter of the previous year, lower revenue from the real estate business and a modest decline in inbound demand at the hotels. Meanwhile, the effect of the monthly membership fee revision implemented in the previous fiscal year continues at the sports club business.

Next time, the focus will be on how far first-half cumulative results exceed this simple 50% benchmark and whether the company can leave its full-year forecasts unchanged, as it did after the first quarter. The explanation of first-quarter changes centered on qualitative factors such as the monthly membership fee revision and inbound demand, and no sales or profit contribution was disclosed for each factor. We will therefore also check whether the first-half results include an additional breakdown of the amounts attributable to each factor and the company's headroom against its full-year forecasts.