First-half forecast sharply revised upward, while the full-year ¥4.8 billion forecast remains unchanged

For the fiscal year ended March 2026, consolidated ordinary income was ¥56.055 billion, ordinary profit was ¥5.461 billion, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥4.128 billion. Ordinary profit increased 29.7% year on year and net profit increased 46.5%. Against this, the initial full-year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 calls for ordinary profit of ¥4.8 billion and net profit of ¥3.2 billion, 12.1% and 22.4% below the previous fiscal year's actual results, respectively. Accordingly, how much profit is generated in the first half and the level of costs and market fluctuations assumed for the second half will be more important than the simple earnings growth rate.

First-quarter ordinary profit was ¥2.339 billion and net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥1.657 billion, up 114.6% and 42.4% year on year, respectively. Ordinary profit was 48.7% of the ¥4.8 billion full-year forecast, while net profit reached 51.8% of the ¥3.2 billion full-year forecast. Even before the first-half forecast was revised, the possibility that profit would be concentrated in the first half had been indicated. At the next earnings announcement, it will be important to confirm whether second-quarter standalone profit maintained the momentum of the first quarter.

In the earnings forecast revision dated 29 October, the first-half ordinary profit forecast was raised from ¥1.3 billion to ¥4.2 billion and the first-half net profit forecast from ¥1.3 billion to ¥2.9 billion. The full-year ordinary profit forecast of ¥4.8 billion and net profit forecast of ¥3.2 billion were unchanged. The revised first-half ordinary profit forecast represents 87.5% of the full-year forecast, while the net profit forecast represents 90.6%. If first-half results come in line with the forecasts, the second-half profit required to meet the full-year forecasts would be only ¥600 million for ordinary profit and ¥300 million for net profit. However, the small size of this gap may also indicate that the company is assuming one-off merger-related costs or fluctuations in the market division in the second half.

At the next earnings announcement, it will be necessary to confirm not only whether first-half results exceeded the revised forecasts of ¥4.2 billion and ¥2.9 billion, but also whether the company can separately disclose interest on loans, interest on deposits, interest and dividends on securities, net fees and commissions, credit-related expenses, and merger-related costs. The assessment of the first-half upside will differ substantially depending on whether the reason for maintaining the full-year forecast is simply conservative assumptions or a specific cost plan associated with the January 2027 merger and systems integration.