Can recurring profit in the FY2027 forecast be maintained while absorbing the reversal of the one-time gain?

In FY2026, ordinary profit was ¥14,046 million, up 36.6% year on year, while net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥17,445 million, up 156.0%. However, net profit included a ¥12,777 million gain on negative goodwill arising from the acquisition of all shares in 四銀総合リース株式会社, while a ¥3,931 million loss on step acquisitions was also recognized. Accordingly, the previous fiscal year's net profit of ¥17,445 million cannot be treated as underlying earning power as it stands. It is necessary to distinguish whether the level indicated by the FY2027 forecast net profit of ¥8,800 million can be achieved through recurring income such as interest income and fees.

In the latest period, FY2027-Q1, ordinary revenue was ¥24,712 million, up 66.6% year on year, while ordinary profit was ¥3,382 million, down 8.6%, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥2,216 million, down 1.7%. Revenue growth did not flow through to profit because ordinary expenses also increased by ¥10,204 million year on year, exceeding the ¥9,882 million increase in ordinary revenue, due to higher interest paid on deposits and increased losses on sales of bonds and other securities associated with improvements to the securities portfolio. At the first-quarter stage, the benefit of higher interest rates has not yet fully offset the increase in expenses.

The FY2027 full-year forecasts are ¥14,000 million for ordinary profit and ¥8,800 million for net profit attributable to owners of the parent, putting simple first-quarter progress at 24.2% and 25.2%, respectively. Because of seasonality, 50% cannot be used mechanically as an achievement benchmark, but the simple first-half benchmarks are ¥7,000 million for ordinary profit and ¥4,400 million for net profit. In FY2027-H1, it will be necessary to assess not only the distance from these benchmarks but also the quality of profit after the previous fiscal year's one-time gain has fallen away by breaking down net interest income, net fees and commissions, losses on sales of bonds, credit costs, and extraordinary gains and losses.