Will the FY2027-Q1 earnings growth momentum carry through to the first half and full-year plan?

FY2027-Q1 ordinary revenue was ¥145,309 million, ordinary profit was ¥41,814 million, and quarterly net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥29,905 million. The corresponding FY2026-Q1 figures were ¥102,755 million, ¥31,070 million and ¥21,783 million, representing year-on-year increases of approximately 41.4%, 34.5% and 37.2%, respectively. At least on the surface, the latest quarter’s earnings growth appears as an expansion in ordinary profit rather than as a one-off gain from special items.

The FY2027 full-year forecasts are ordinary profit of ¥154,300 million and net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥107,000 million. Dividing the FY2027-Q1 results by the full-year forecasts gives progress rates of 27.1% for ordinary profit and 27.9% for net income. However, quarterly bank earnings can fluctuate depending on when interest income and gains or losses on securities are recognized and when credit costs arise, so these ratios cannot be treated as the probability of achieving the full-year forecasts. For H1, the most practical benchmark will be comparison with FY2026-H1 ordinary profit of ¥64,395 million and net income of ¥44,222 million.

At the next earnings release, we will look at not only the H1 profit level but also the reasons for maintaining the full-year forecasts. FY2026 full-year ordinary profit was ¥138,815 million and net income was ¥94,063 million, so the FY2027 forecasts assume year-on-year growth of approximately 11.1% and 13.7%, respectively. Even if year-on-year earnings growth continues in H1, if the full-year forecasts are maintained, the assumptions for funding costs, credit costs and market-related gains and losses in H2 will be important. Conversely, the next evaluation points will be whether the full-year forecasts are revised upward as of H1, or whether the quality of earnings can be explained even without a revision.