Q1 net profit reaches 29.5% of full-year forecast: can it reach the halfway mark by H1?

In Q1 of the fiscal year ending March 2027, ordinary revenue rose 16.6% year on year to ¥2.8504 trillion, while ordinary profit rose 43.4% to ¥693.1 billion. Net income attributable to owners of the parent rose 33.0% to ¥501.4 billion, representing simple progress of 29.5% against the ¥1.7 trillion full-year forecast. Bank earnings can be seasonal, so 29.5% cannot be taken as the probability of achieving the full-year target, but it represents a strong start well above the year-earlier level.

Looking at the drivers of earnings growth, consolidated gross profit increased by ¥315.7 billion year on year, while operating expenses increased by ¥112.5 billion. Equity-method investment gains and losses declined by ¥25.1 billion, but gains and losses on equities and other securities reached ¥75.4 billion, an increase of ¥34.4 billion year on year. Earnings growth was therefore driven not simply by expense reductions, but also by higher gross profit and gains on equities and other securities. At the next results announcement, the sustainability of business net profit excluding gains and losses on equities and other securities and equity-method investment gains and losses will need to be assessed.

In the previous fiscal year, FY2026, ordinary profit rose 34.0% year on year to ¥2.3034 trillion, while net income attributable to owners of the parent rose 34.4% to ¥1.5830 trillion. The current fiscal year's ¥1.7 trillion net profit forecast is 7.4% above the previous year's result, implying a plan to build further on the previous year's high earnings. At the next results announcement, it will be important to track not only whether H1 net profit reaches the mechanical halfway benchmark of ¥850.0 billion, but also whether the company discloses full-year forecasts for revenue, operating profit and ordinary profit and quantitatively explains the drivers of Q1 earnings growth on a cumulative H1 basis.