Can the sharp 1Q profit growth be replicated in FY2027-H1?

In 1Q of the fiscal year ending March 2027, ordinary revenue was ¥3,907,543 million, up 20.1% year on year; ordinary profit was ¥1,117,934 million, up 57.8%; and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥809,427 million, up 48.2%. Profit growth exceeded ordinary revenue growth, confirming that profit improved by more than revenue growth at the 1Q stage.

However, the company has not provided full-year forecasts for ordinary revenue or ordinary profit for the fiscal year ending March 2027. What it has disclosed is a ¥2,700,000 million target for net income attributable to owners of the parent, which is positioned differently from a conventional earnings forecast. Dividing 1Q net income of ¥809,427 million by this target gives a mechanical progress rate of 29.98%, leaving ¥1,890,573 million to reach the target.

If H1 is viewed as a simple halfway point toward the target, cumulative net income of ¥1,350,000 million through the end of September would be one reference point. However, this is not a six-month plan provided by the company, but merely a reference figure obtained by mechanically dividing the annual target in half. Accordingly, the H1 results should be assessed not only on the simple progress rate, but also on the breakdown of net interest income, share of profit or loss of investments accounted for using the equity method, fee income, and credit-related costs that supported 1Q ordinary profit of ¥1,117,934 million.

As of 1Q, the company had disclosed neither conventional numerical guidance for full-year ordinary revenue, ordinary profit, and operating profit, nor its own assessment against the plan or an official progress rate against the full-year target. The key questions at the next results announcement will be whether the company merely maintains the target in H1, moves to a more specific earnings forecast, and achieves half of the target mechanically through 2Q standalone profit of at least ¥540,573 million.