The focus is whether the strong first-quarter earnings progress can withstand the expected leveling-off in the first half.

In the first quarter, covering April through June 2026, ordinary revenue was ¥67.282 billion, up 10.8% year on year; ordinary income was ¥13.911 billion, up 73.7%; and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥11.492 billion, up 81.7%. Earnings per share also rose to ¥83.00, with earnings growth far outpacing top-line growth. The substantial year-on-year improvement in earnings provides a strong starting point for the first half.

The earnings presentation sets full-year forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 2027 at ¥111.0 billion for consolidated gross operating profit, ¥44.0 billion for consolidated net business profit, ¥37.0 billion for ordinary income and ¥27.0 billion for net income attributable to owners of the parent. First-quarter progress was 29%, 37%, 38% and 43%, respectively, with net income showing the highest progress and consolidated gross operating profit the lowest. This indicates that bottom-line earnings are not determined solely by progress in gross operating profit, but changes in credit-related expenses, expenses and taxes will also need to be monitored.

The first quarter is presented as the standalone three-month period from April through June, while the company has explained that earnings are expected to level off over the full year. It would therefore be inappropriate to simply multiply first-quarter earnings by four and treat that as a full-year run-rate. As a reference, half of the full-year forecasts would be ¥13.5 billion for net income, ¥18.5 billion for ordinary income, ¥22.0 billion for consolidated net business profit and ¥55.5 billion for consolidated gross operating profit. These can be used as simple progress benchmarks for the first half. They are monitoring thresholds calculated from the full-year forecasts, not the company’s first-half forecasts.

In the first-half results, we will look not only at how far cumulative net income, ordinary income and consolidated net business profit have risen, but also whether the high first-quarter earnings progress was concentrated in specific sources of revenue, such as the investment banking business and GMO Aozora Net Bank. The latest materials do not disclose a full-year ordinary revenue forecast, an operating income forecast or an explicit first-half target. Accordingly, in addition to whether the full-year plan is maintained or revised, it will be important to see how much detail is disclosed in the first half on expenses, credit costs and taxes between gross operating profit and net income.