Q1 is on track for the full-year plan, but Q2 needs operating profit of ¥7,340 million for H1 to meet plan

Consolidated operating profit for Q1 of the fiscal year ending February 2027, covering 1 March to 31 May 2026, was ¥6,860 million, representing 23.7% progress against the full-year plan of ¥29,000 million. Company materials describe this as “in line with the historical average” compared with the five-year average Q1 progress rate of 23.5%, indicating that, at least for operating profit, the company made a start in line with its plan after taking seasonality into account. The full-year operating revenue plan is ¥587,100 million, putting simple progress on Q1 operating revenue of ¥140,309 million at 23.9%.

Meanwhile, the Q1 materials state an H1 cumulative operating profit plan of ¥14,200 million. Working back from the difference between this figure and actual Q1 operating profit of ¥6,860 million, standalone Q2 operating profit needs to be ¥7,340 million. This is not an amount the company has explicitly stated as a standalone Q2 target, but it is the most readily testable hurdle for the H1 results. The H1 plan of ¥14,200 million is equivalent to 49.0% of the full-year plan of ¥29,000 million, leaving ¥14,800 million of operating profit to be generated in the second half even if H1 is achieved.

For sales, progress of Q1 operating revenue against the full-year plan can be calculated, but there is no indication that the company has explicitly stated an H1 cumulative operating revenue progress rate, as it has for operating profit. Accordingly, in FY2027-H1 it will be necessary to confirm not only actual operating revenue, but also which items, including existing stores, new stores and retail-related businesses, contributed to H1 sales. Even if profit is on plan, the second-half outlook will differ depending on whether sales growth is being offset by reductions in selling, general and administrative expenses.

At the next results announcement, the key questions will be whether H1 operating profit exceeds ¥14,200 million and by how much it exceeds the ¥7,340 million standalone Q2 figure calculated above. It will also be important to see whether the forecasts of ¥29,000 million for full-year operating profit, ¥587,100 million for operating revenue, ¥28,400 million for ordinary profit and ¥17,400 million for net profit are maintained or revised. In particular, if the company maintains its plan at the H1 stage, the focus will be on whether it provides specific details of the assumptions required to achieve second-half operating profit of ¥14,800 million and its own assessment of progress against the plan.