Can the first-quarter earnings lead be maintained in the first half?

First-quarter net sales for the fiscal year ending February 2027 were ¥11,439 million, up 2.9% year on year, while operating profit was ¥599 million, up 51.0%. The full-year forecast is net sales of ¥47,300 million and operating profit of ¥2,200 million, implying simple progress rates of 24.2% and 27.2%, respectively. As the first quarter represents approximately 25% of the year, net sales were broadly in line with the passage of time, while operating profit was approximately 2.2 percentage points ahead.

However, the company has not separately disclosed its FY2027-H1 net sales and operating profit forecasts or the amounts required for the remaining period at the end of the first half. Accordingly, net sales of ¥23,650 million and operating profit of ¥1,100 million are reference thresholds calculated by simply dividing the full-year forecasts by 50%, rather than the company’s own plan. Actual first-half profit could be below 50% because of seasonality and product mix, so full-year achievement cannot be determined solely from the deviation from these thresholds.

At the second-quarter results announcement, we need to review not only cumulative figures but also standalone first-half net sales and operating profit for April through August. The previous earnings presentation did not provide legible figures for the three-month quarter or progress against the full-year forecast, so it will also be important to see whether the company discloses information that allows standalone first-half seasonality and margins to be assessed. In addition, we will review first-half progress against ordinary profit of ¥2,040 million and net profit of ¥1,200 million to determine whether only operating profit is ahead or whether profit remains on track after non-operating gains and losses and the tax burden.

Any revision to the full-year forecast is also a key consideration. As of the first quarter, net sales of ¥47,300 million, operating profit of ¥2,200 million and annual dividends of ¥13 were all unchanged from the previous forecasts. Even if the forecasts are maintained at the second quarter, we will assess whether the net sales and profit levels required in the second half are realistic in light of first-half results and whether the company provides a quantitative explanation.