Full-year plan behind on Q1 revenue, with H1 focused on whether momentum turns around

Q1 revenue for the fiscal year ending March 2027 was ¥17,098 million, representing 21.4% of the ¥80,000 million full-year forecast. This was approximately 3.6 percentage points below the level implied by a simple assumption of 25% progress each quarter. Meanwhile, the operating loss narrowed from ¥500 million in the same quarter of the previous year to ¥256 million, an improvement of ¥244 million. Although revenue was progressing slowly, profitability improved.

If FY2027-H1 revenue is set at the simple 50% run rate of the full-year forecast, or ¥40,000 million, standalone Q2 revenue of ¥22,902 million will be required after deducting Q1 revenue. This is ¥5,804 million, or approximately 33.9%, above Q1 revenue of ¥17,098 million. However, ¥40,000 million is not a first-half target presented by the company, but a mechanical benchmark that does not take seasonality into account. The results therefore need to be assessed alongside the company’s expected first-half seasonality and sales plan.

Achieving the full-year revenue forecast will require revenue of ¥62,902 million over the remaining 9 months after Q1, or a simple average of ¥20,967 million per quarter. As Q1 recorded an operating loss of ¥256 million, total operating profit of ¥2,056 million will be required over the remaining period to reach the full-year forecast of ¥1,800 million. Accordingly, in H1, the key issues will be not only simple revenue progress, but also whether the company can secure an operating profit in standalone Q2 and whether the profit level required in the second half becomes excessively high.

There was no revision to the earnings forecasts as of Q1. The forecasts remained unchanged at ¥80,000 million in full-year revenue, ¥1,800 million in operating profit, ¥1,900 million in ordinary profit and ¥1,600 million in net income attributable to owners of the parent. The annual dividend forecast also remained unchanged at ¥95. In FY2027-H1, we will assess, based on whether the forecasts are revised and the profit required over the remaining period, whether the revenue shortfall can be explained by temporary regional or product-related factors or whether the underlying assumptions for the full-year forecasts themselves need to be revisited.