Full-year revenue forecast cut; feasibility of profit recovery to be judged in H1

In the first quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2027, revenue was ¥164.1 billion, operating loss was ¥0.9 billion, profit before tax was ¥1.5 billion, and profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent was ¥1.2 billion. The full-year forecast is revenue of ¥732.0 billion, operating profit of ¥11.0 billion, profit before tax of ¥14.5 billion, and profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent of ¥10.0 billion. On a simple calculation, 1Q revenue represented 22.4% of the full-year forecast, while operating profit was negative 8.2% relative to the full-year forecast. The 1Q operating margin was negative 0.5%, compared with approximately 1.5% in the full-year plan. The company has not specified the progress rate against the full-year forecast or whether performance was on track as of 1Q.

The full-year revenue forecast was reduced by ¥8.0 billion, or approximately 1.1%, from ¥740.0 billion as of May. Operating profit was raised by ¥1.0 billion from ¥10.0 billion to ¥11.0 billion, profit before tax by ¥0.5 billion from ¥14.0 billion to ¥14.5 billion, while profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent was unchanged at ¥10.0 billion. The materials do not break down the reasons for the revenue cut and profit increases on a monetary basis. At the H1 results, it will be necessary to determine whether the decline in volume was offset by pricing, product mix and cost controls, or whether a substantial recovery has been factored into H2.

Starting from the 1Q results, achieving full-year revenue of ¥732.0 billion requires ¥567.9 billion over the remaining 3 quarters, while achieving operating profit of ¥11.0 billion requires operating profit of ¥11.9 billion over the remaining period. In the fiscal year ended March 2026, revenue was ¥677.1 billion, operating loss was ¥112.4 billion, loss before tax was ¥106.5 billion, and loss for the period attributable to owners of the parent was ¥86.0 billion. The fiscal year ending March 2027 plan therefore assumes a substantial earnings recovery. If signs of a return to profitability do not emerge in H1, achievement of the full-year plan will become even more concentrated in H2.

The assumptions underlying the earnings forecast are full-year exchange rates of ¥156 to the US dollar and ¥181 to the euro, camera sales of 850,000 units, interchangeable lenses of 1.25 million units, 27 FPD lithography systems, and 29 semiconductor lithography systems. However, no bridge has been provided showing how foreign exchange, sales volumes and segment earnings translate into operating profit of ¥11.0 billion. At the next results announcement, we will check H1 cumulative results, whether the full-year forecast is maintained or revised, the profit level required over the remaining period, and the specific factors that allowed the profit forecast to be raised despite cutting the revenue forecast by ¥8.0 billion.