Can the strong first-half progress be maintained in Q3, putting full-year operating profit within reach of ¥15.6 billion?

FY2026-H1 revenue was ¥72.361 billion, up 50.7% year on year, while operating profit was ¥9.243 billion, up 90.8%. Ordinary profit was ¥9.022 billion, up 98.6%, and interim net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥5.977 billion, up 114.3%. The full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥140.0 billion, operating profit of ¥15.6 billion, ordinary profit of ¥15.2 billion and net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥9.8 billion. H1 progress rates were 51.7% for revenue, 59.3% for operating profit, 59.4% for ordinary profit and 61.0% for net income.

Working back from the full-year plan, the required second-half revenue is ¥67.639 billion and the required operating profit is ¥6.357 billion. If 75% of the full-year plan is used as a simple proxy for the elapsed period through Q3 YTD, the checkpoints would be approximately ¥105.0 billion in revenue and ¥11.7 billion in operating profit. However, the company promoted sales of inventory from home-visit purchases in Q1 and inventory from store purchases in Q2. As the timing of inventory sales also contributed to the improvement in H1 margins, the same margin may not continue mechanically in Q3.

According to the earnings presentation, standalone Q2 revenue was ¥40.303 billion and operating profit was ¥4.120 billion. Compared with standalone Q1 revenue of ¥32.057 billion and operating profit of ¥5.123 billion, revenue increased while operating profit declined. In Q3, the key questions will be not only whether revenue expands, but also whether the H1 operating margin of 12.8% is maintained and whether the mix of advertising expenses, personnel expenses and inventory sales weighs on margins.

At present, the company has not disclosed quantitative assumptions for standalone Q3 revenue, profit, advertising investment or inventory sales embedded in the full-year forecast. Accordingly, at the next earnings release, the focus will be on cumulative progress rates as well as whether the full-year forecast is maintained or revised again, the standalone Q3 operating margin and whether any inventory-sale effect remains in the second half.