Full-year operating profit of ¥2,100 million is 93.6% achieved by Q3, with fourth-quarter revenue concentration the focus

For the 9 months ended FY2026-Q3, revenue was ¥70,732 million and operating profit was ¥1,966 million. With the full-year forecasts unchanged at revenue of ¥98,500 million and operating profit of ¥2,100 million, simple arithmetic requires Q4 revenue of ¥27,768 million and operating profit of ¥134 million. Revenue progress was 71.8%, approximately 3.2 percentage points below the 75% mark after 9 months, while operating profit progress had reached 93.6%. The clear gap between revenue and profit progress is the first point to confirm at the full-year results.

Compared with the prior year, revenue for the 9 months ended FY2025-Q3 was ¥69,358 million and operating profit was ¥2,001 million. The FY2026 company forecast calls for revenue to increase 6.7% year on year but operating profit to decline 17.1% to ¥2,100 million. Prior-year Q4 revenue was ¥22,914 million, calculated by subtracting 9-month revenue of ¥69,358 million from full-year revenue of ¥92,272 million. The ¥27,768 million required this year is approximately ¥4,854 million, or 21%, higher. Prior-year Q4 operating profit was ¥530 million, calculated by subtracting 9-month operating profit of ¥2,001 million from full-year operating profit of ¥2,531 million, so ¥134 million this year would be sufficient to reach the full-year forecast. It is necessary to distinguish whether the business can meet its profit target even if revenue recognition is delayed, or whether the completion of large projects is concentrated in Q4.

The company has traditionally explained that customer handovers and revenue are concentrated in Q2 and Q4, while selling, general and administrative expenses arise relatively evenly, making operating profit more likely to be low in Q1 and Q3. Given this seasonality, revenue progress below 75% after Q3 does not by itself indicate that the full-year target will be missed. However, new housing starts are now in a sustained decline, and the company has indicated insufficient orders for housing-equipment work for multi-unit residential properties. At the next earnings release, it will be necessary to review large tile, stone and air-conditioning projects scheduled for completion in Q4, deliveries for detached homes, and the value and completion timing of the order backlog.

In particular, whether the projects supporting required Q4 revenue of ¥27,768 million are completions of existing orders, or reflect price revisions or contributions from newly consolidated subsidiaries, will affect the quality of full-year earnings. The current earnings summary does not disclose order intake, order backlog or regional revenue. Accordingly, at the next earnings release the focus will be not only on full-year results but also on why Q4 revenue reached the forecast, the contribution of gross margin and selling, general and administrative expenses if operating profit exceeded ¥134 million, and whether a first-year plan for the fiscal year ending September 2027 is newly presented.