Can the early first-half profit progress be reproduced in Q2?

Revenue in FY2027-Q1 was ¥33,751 million, operating profit was ¥1,570 million, ordinary profit was ¥1,682 million and quarterly net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥1,210 million. Year on year, these increased 10.5%, 41.4%, 39.9% and 50.0%, respectively, with profit growth exceeding revenue growth. The full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥135,000 million, operating profit of ¥5,100 million, ordinary profit of ¥5,450 million and net profit of ¥4,000 million.

Progress against the full-year forecasts in Q1 was 25.0% for revenue, 30.8% for operating profit, 30.9% for ordinary profit and 30.3% for net profit. On a quarterly basis, revenue was almost one-quarter of the full-year forecast, while operating profit exceeded 30%, indicating that profit was ahead of schedule in the first half. However, the Q1 results materials explain that the proportions of revenue in Q2 and Q3 are high, so Q1's profit margin cannot be extrapolated directly to the full year.

Reverse-calculating from the progress rates against the first-half forecasts stated in the materials gives estimated first-half forecasts of approximately ¥66,967 million for revenue, ¥2,599 million for operating profit, ¥2,799 million for ordinary profit and ¥1,899 million for net profit. Accordingly, the amounts required in Q2 alone after Q1 are approximately ¥33,216 million of revenue, ¥1,029 million of operating profit and ¥689 million of net profit. Because the progress rates are displayed after rounding, these are not precise target figures, but a key verification point is whether cumulative Q2 results can at least approach these levels.

In the next results announcement, it will be important to disclose not only actual progress against the first-half forecasts but also revenue and operating profit for Q2 alone. Q1 operating margin was 4.7%, so it will be necessary to confirm whether the margin can remain at a similar level through cumulative Q2, or whether selling, general and administrative expense and logistics cost ratios rise as Q2 revenue expands. Since the full-year forecast remains unchanged, it will also be necessary to assess whether the company maintains it after achieving the first-half target or revises it because of uncertainty over raw material prices and fuel costs.