Can the first-quarter profit lead be replicated in the first half?

FY2027 Q1 revenue was ¥18,446 million, up 21.6% year on year, while operating profit was ¥1,640 million, up 149.2%. Compared with revenue of ¥15,167 million and operating profit of ¥658 million in the same quarter of the previous year, revenue increased by ¥3,279 million and operating profit by ¥982 million, indicating that profit improved by more than revenue. On a simple calculation, the operating margin also rose from approximately 4.3% in the same quarter of the previous year to approximately 8.9%.

The full-year forecasts remain unchanged at revenue of ¥66,000 million and operating profit of ¥3,700 million. At the end of Q1, progress was approximately 28.0% for revenue and 44.3% for operating profit, with operating profit progress 16.3 percentage points ahead of revenue. As 25% of the fiscal year had elapsed in Q1, profit appeared to be ahead of plan, but this is a simple comparison that does not account for seasonality, so it is not sufficient to conclude that the full-year forecast will be exceeded.

Using a simple 50% run rate against the full-year forecast, FY2027 H1 revenue of ¥33,000 million and operating profit of ¥1,850 million provide reference thresholds. Based on Q1 results, standalone second-quarter revenue of ¥14,554 million and operating profit of ¥210 million would be required. Since operating profit had already reached ¥1,640 million in Q1, the hurdle for the simple H1 target is low on the profit side, while second-quarter sales trends will be more important for revenue.

In FY2026 H1, revenue was ¥30,707 million, operating profit was ¥1,357 million and the operating margin was approximately 4.4%. Given the Q1 results, exceeding the previous year's H1 revenue of ¥30,707 million and operating profit of ¥1,357 million appears likely. From an investment perspective, however, the key question is whether the company can achieve revenue of ¥33,000 million and operating profit of ¥1,850 million, levels close to 50% of the full-year forecast, rather than simply exceed the previous year.