Nine-month operating profit is close to the full-year forecast; focus on the quality of the full-year landing rather than upside in Q4

In the latest third-quarter results, revenue for the nine months from October 2025 through June 2026 was ¥27,415 million, operating profit was ¥696.519 million, ordinary profit was ¥769 million, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥538 million. Year on year, revenue increased only 4.3%, while operating profit rose 57.2%, ordinary profit 51.2%, and net income 44.8%. The latest news indicates that the results announcement is scheduled for 13 November 2026, when full-year results and the outlook for the next fiscal year are expected to be available together.

The full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥35,600 million, operating profit of ¥720 million, ordinary profit of ¥820 million, and net income of ¥510 million. Nine-month revenue progress was ¥27,415 million ÷ ¥35,600 million, or 77.0%, approximately 2 percentage points above the simple 75% progress level after nine months. Operating profit reached 96.7%, based on ¥696.519 million ÷ ¥720 million, with profit progress substantially ahead of revenue progress.

A simple calculation of the gap to the full-year forecasts leaves ¥8,184.973 million of revenue, ¥23.481 million of operating profit, and ¥51 million of ordinary profit required in Q4. Net income already exceeded the full-year forecast by ¥28 million in the nine-month period, so a ¥28 million decline in Q4 would be required to meet the full-year forecast exactly. This difference does not mean that the company expects a Q4 loss, but it is a point to examine for possible front-loading of profit into the nine-month period, as well as the effects of extraordinary gains and losses and the tax burden.

The nine-month operating margin was approximately 2.54%, based on ¥696.519 million ÷ ¥27,415.027 million, an improvement of approximately 0.85 percentage points from approximately 1.69% in the same period of the previous year. The operating margin based on the full-year forecast is approximately 2.02%, based on ¥720 million ÷ ¥35,600 million. In the final results, the focus should be not only on whether revenue of ¥35,600 million and operating profit of ¥720 million are achieved, but also on how much of the core profit level, excluding non-operating and extraordinary items such as gains on sales of investment securities, was maintained, including the Q4 revenue mix and segment profit contributions.