Reassessing the full-year operating profit decline forecast in H1 despite continued sales growth

The next earnings announcement is scheduled for 9 November 2026. In the latest first quarter, revenue was ¥5,126.560 million, operating profit was ¥59.093 million, ordinary profit was ¥77.862 million, and net profit was approximately ¥61 million. Year on year, these figures represented increases of 5.7%, 2.8%, 4.1% and 40.7%, respectively. Revenue and profit both exceeded the year-earlier levels, but operating profit growth lagged revenue growth.

The full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥21,200 million, operating profit of ¥180 million, ordinary profit of ¥200 million and net profit of ¥150 million. Calculated using the first-quarter results alone, progress against the full-year plans was 24.2% for revenue, 32.8% for operating profit, 38.9% for ordinary profit and 40.7% for net profit. A simple 50% H1 benchmark would be ¥10,600 million, ¥90 million, ¥100 million and ¥75 million, respectively. Although these are not forecasts adjusted for actual seasonality, they provide a benchmark for measuring progress against the first-half plans.

Last year, revenue was ¥20,978 million and operating profit was ¥211 million. For the current year, the company plans for revenue to rise 1.1% to ¥21,200 million and operating profit to fall 14.9% to ¥180 million. The company cites lower margins due to higher fish prices and increases in personnel and logistics costs as factors behind the forecast decline. In the first quarter, the seafood wholesale business generated revenue of ¥5,083.760 million and segment profit of ¥60.866 million, accounting for nearly all of the company-wide revenue increase. The real estate and other leasing business generated revenue of ¥42.799 million and segment profit of ¥4.564 million.

In H1, the focus will be not only on whether revenue exceeds the year-earlier level, but also on whether operating profit exceeds ¥90 million and whether the operating margin is trending down toward approximately 0.85%, the level implied by the full-year plan. In addition, even if the full-year forecasts are maintained, it will be important to see whether the company provides quantitative details on the extent to which higher fish prices, personnel costs and logistics costs have been factored in, and whether the first quarter's sales of high-freshness products continue to contribute to profit.