Can the first-half return to profitability lead to achievement of the full-year forecast?

In FY2026-H1, revenue increased 26.1% year on year to ¥2,853 million, while operating profit was ¥72 million, ordinary profit was ¥82 million and interim net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥51 million. All three figures represented a return to profitability from an operating loss of ¥34 million, an ordinary loss of ¥10 million and an interim net loss of ¥11 million, respectively, in the same period of the previous year. The nursing-care business benefited from higher revenue and profit at 3 sites in the Kanto region and elsewhere, while the real-estate business benefited from the recognition of revenue from one contracted construction project, confirming a recovery in performance.

The full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥5,951 million, operating profit of ¥162 million, ordinary profit of ¥205 million and net profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥123 million. Based on the presentation materials, H1 progress was 47.8% for revenue, 44.7% for operating profit, 40.0% for ordinary profit and 41.7% for net profit. Assuming even progress, cumulative FY2026-Q3 figures of approximately ¥4,463 million in revenue, ¥122 million in operating profit, ¥154 million in ordinary profit and ¥92 million in net profit would provide one reference point. However, the company has explained that its business structure is weighted toward second-half profit, so these are mechanical benchmarks for measuring progress, not company forecasts.

Based on H1 results, achieving the full-year forecasts requires second-half revenue of ¥3,098 million, operating profit of ¥90 million, ordinary profit of ¥123 million and net profit of ¥72 million. The remaining revenue target is larger than H1 revenue, while the company must generate ¥90 million of operating profit in the second half versus ¥72 million in H1. Accordingly, the key factors will be not only revenue growth but also optimization of staffing at each site, a recovery in home-visit nursing profitability and the profit margin on contracted real-estate projects.

The H1 presentation materials state that performance was above the internal budget as of the second quarter, but the company has not disclosed consolidated revenue or operating profit for the three-month quarter alone, or a company-provided bridge showing the profit required in Q3. By segment, the nursing-care business generated revenue of ¥2,693.120 million and segment profit of ¥54.484 million, while the real-estate business generated revenue of ¥160.390 million and segment profit of ¥34.132 million. In FY2026-Q3, we will assess whether the return to profitability is continuing in both businesses rather than being a temporary H1 factor, and whether the company can execute its second-half profit plan without revising the full-year forecast.