New business has recovered, but a bottom in in-force policies has yet to be confirmed

The number of new individual insurance policies in the first quarter was 167,000, an increase of 51,000, or 43.9%, from 116,000 in the same quarter of the previous year. New business sum assured was ¥434.4 billion, up 134.6% year on year, while new business value was ¥26.9 billion, up 101.1%, and the new business margin was 7.5%. Improvement from the previous year in volume, policy value and profitability provides evidence of a recovery in sales activity.

However, in-force policies totaled 17.547 million, down 1.0% from 17.725 million at 31 March 2026. In previous fiscal years as well, in-force individual insurance policies, including reinsurance assumed, declined by 1.084 million, or 5.8%, from 18.810 million at 31 March 2025 to 17.725 million at 31 March 2026. Even if new business has begun to recover, there is a lag before it exceeds policies lapsing through surrender, maturity and other causes, so an increase in new policies alone cannot be taken as evidence of a turnaround in the customer base.

The company's FY2027 plan assumes approximately 800,000 new individual insurance policies and approximately 1.4 million policies running off. Under these assumptions, containing the annual net decline will require not only an increase in new business but also improvements in the persistency of existing policies and after-sales support. In FY2027-H1, in addition to how far the first-quarter result of 167,000 policies builds during the half-year, the net change in new business, policies running off and in-force policies by product should be monitored.

In the previous fiscal year, the single-premium whole life insurance product launched in January 2024 significantly boosted new business. In FY2026-H1, however, declining sales of the product contributed to the 248,000 new policies, down 52.3% year on year. It has not yet been disclosed whether the current recovery extends beyond a rebound in single-premium products to protection products, regular-premium products and sales activity across the post office channel. In H1, it will be necessary to assess which products and customer segments generated the ¥26.9 billion increase in new business value, and whether the decline in annualized premiums from in-force policies improves from the first-quarter level.