CFD was the main driver in the first half, but slowed on a standalone Q2 basis

The Securities and FX business reported operating revenue of ¥25,991 million and operating income of ¥10,416 million for the first half of the fiscal year ending December 2026, making it the largest segment supporting consolidated performance. First-half operating revenue rose 17.5% year on year, while operating income increased 23.8%, with CFD, financial income and equity-related transactions contributing. However, momentum weakened on a quarterly basis: operating revenue and operating income fell from ¥14,261 million and ¥6,388 million in Q1 to ¥11,729 million and ¥4,028 million, respectively, in standalone Q2.

By product, CFD revenue in the earnings presentation declined from ¥6,404 million in Q1 to ¥4,312 million in standalone Q2, a quarter-on-quarter decline of approximately 32.7%. The operating income bridge also showed CFD and stock BO as a ¥2.08 billion quarter-on-quarter drag on earnings, making it difficult to assess the run rate beyond Q3 based solely on the strong first-half cumulative results. It will be necessary to determine whether the Q2 decline was a temporary market-related factor or reflects an ongoing deterioration in the profitability of product CFD.

For the first half, the company reported CFD trading value of ¥54 trillion, up 13.0% year on year, and CFD revenue of ¥4,312 million, while over-the-counter FX trading volume and revenue weakened as volatility in the foreign exchange market declined. Accordingly, the key points for FY2026-Q3 will be whether strong conditions in the commodities market continued, how narrower spreads and customer rebates for product CFD affected the margin, and the breakdown of operating revenue and operating income from CFD and stock BO.

At the next earnings announcement, the key question will be how much standalone Q3 recovered from standalone Q2 operating revenue of ¥11,729 million and operating income of ¥4,028 million. If CFD revenue exceeds ¥4,312 million and operating income in the Securities and FX business surpasses ¥4,028 million, the view that the Q2 slowdown was temporary will gain strength. Conversely, if CFD revenue declines further and revenue from FX and foreign-exchange options also continues to fall, it will be difficult to simply extend the assessment of record first-half performance to the cumulative Q3 results.