Will the recovery in individual insurance new business continue into FY2027-H1?

In FY2027-Q1, individual insurance policies in force totaled 698,946, an increase of 12,709, or approximately 1.9%, from 686,237 at the end of FY2026. New policies totaled 22,244, or 111.4% of the year-earlier level, while annualized new business premiums were ¥844 million, or 110.2%. The recovery that emerged in FY2026 after stagnation through FY2025 continued at least through the first quarter. Policies in force were 659,078 in FY2026-H1, while new policies and annualized new business premiums were 40,441 and ¥1,599 million, respectively. The first checkpoint for H1 will therefore be whether these year-earlier results are exceeded.

The lapse rate is also important in assessing the quality of growth, not just the net increase in policies. The lapse rate was 5.5% in FY2026-H1 and for FY2026 as a whole, but declined to 5.2% in FY2027-Q1. If lapses increase at the same time as new business, the effect of expanding the in-force book will be reduced. We will therefore look at whether the lapse rate can remain at or below 5.5% in H1, and whether growth in annualized new business premiums can keep pace with growth in new policies.

The current disclosure does not provide numerical breakdowns of new policies or annualized new business premiums between the direct and partner businesses, or between term products and existing products. Accordingly, the H1 results should also be reviewed for additional disclosure on the contribution by product and channel, growth in term medical and term cancer insurance targeting younger customers, and the relationship with advertising investment. The sustainability of the recovery will depend not only on whether total policies exceed 700,000, but also on which distribution channels and products generated the increase.