Full-year forecast requires a significant fourth-quarter recovery, assuming an improvement in orders

Cumulative 3Q FY2026 revenue for the fiscal year ending August 2026 was ¥9,075 million and operating profit was ¥1,424 million, down 11.8% and 16.5%, respectively, from revenue of ¥10,286 million and operating profit of ¥1,704 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Rather than recovering from FY2025 revenue of ¥12,680 million and operating profit of ¥1,808 million, both revenue and profit remained lower at least through the cumulative 3Q period.

Meanwhile, the full-year FY2026 forecast recorded in the financial summary calls for revenue of ¥13,600 million, operating profit of ¥2,500 million, net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥1,850 million, and earnings per share of ¥216.54. To meet the full-year forecast from the cumulative 3Q results, the company will need revenue of ¥4,525 million, operating profit of ¥1,076 million, and net income of ¥646 million in the remaining 4Q. The full-year forecast implies an operating margin of 18.4%, but the required 4Q operating margin is 23.8%.

The hurdle becomes even clearer when compared with the previous year's 4Q. In FY2025, full-year revenue was ¥12,680 million and operating profit was ¥1,808 million, versus cumulative 3Q revenue of ¥10,286 million and operating profit of ¥1,704 million. This implies previous-year 4Q revenue of ¥2,394 million and operating profit of ¥104 million. The ¥4,525 million in revenue required this year is approximately 1.9 times the previous year's 4Q figure, while the required ¥1,076 million in operating profit is approximately 10 times higher. At the next results announcement, it will be necessary to distinguish the portion of the order backlog that has actually converted into shipments and revenue, the product mix, utilization at the Vietnam production base, and any additional expenses recognized.

As of 3Q, the company had not disclosed specific assumptions underlying the full-year forecast or segment-level 4Q revenue and profit plans. Accordingly, the key points are not simply whether the full-year forecast was maintained, but whether the recovery in orders for the semiconductor and LCD-related businesses progressed to revenue recognition in 4Q, and how much the operating margin improved from 15.7% for the cumulative 3Q period.