After the upward revision to the first-half earnings forecast, can the plan be achieved in 2Q alone?

The revision to the first-half earnings forecast announced on 20 August projected revenue of ¥3,000 million, ordinary profit of ¥285 million and net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥185 million for the period from March through August 2026. Compared with the previous forecast, ordinary profit was increased by approximately 32.1% and net income by approximately 12%. The first focus of the FY2027-H1 results will therefore be whether actual results meet these revised figures.

1Q results were revenue of ¥1,556.329 million, operating profit of ¥118.171 million, ordinary profit of ¥169.532 million and net income of ¥124.158 million. As of 1Q, this represented approximately 51.9% of the revised first-half revenue forecast, 59.5% of the ordinary profit forecast and 67.1% of the net income forecast. On a simple residual basis, 2Q alone would need to generate revenue of ¥1,443.671 million, ordinary profit of ¥115.468 million and net income of ¥60.842 million.

The full-year forecasts remain unchanged at revenue of ¥6,600 million, operating profit of ¥500 million, ordinary profit of ¥515 million and net income of ¥335 million. The revised first-half forecasts represent 45.5% of the full-year revenue forecast, 55.3% of the ordinary profit forecast and 55.2% of the net income forecast. It will therefore be necessary to determine whether the higher first-half forecast could lead to an upward revision for the full year, or whether the assumptions for the second half remain unchanged.

At the next earnings announcement, the first step will be to confirm whether the three first-half cumulative metrics met the revised forecasts. It will then be important to determine which businesses generated 2Q revenue and profit alone, and the first-half operating profit actually achieved. Because the latest revision announcement did not provide a revised operating profit figure, the operating margin, the gap between operating and ordinary profit, and whether the full-year forecasts were revised will also be important disclosures.