1Q tracking broadly to plan, with H1 set to test the achievability of the full-year target

FY2027 1Q revenue was ¥44,576 million, up 29.9% year on year; operating profit was ¥14,481 million, up 18.6%; and EBITDA was ¥14,888 million, up 19.5%. Progress against the full-year forecasts was 23.5% for revenue, 22.3% for operating profit and 22.4% for EBITDA. Compared with the simple 25.0% benchmark after three months, revenue was 1.5 percentage points behind and EBITDA was 2.6 percentage points behind.

The company, however, said that 1Q revenue finished above plan while EBITDA was broadly in line with plan. The simple H1 cumulative benchmarks are ¥95,000 million for revenue, ¥32,400 million for operating profit and ¥33,250 million for EBITDA. Seasonality must be taken into account, however. FY2026 2Q cumulative revenue was ¥68,462 million, equivalent to 46.1% of full-year actual revenue of ¥148,332 million. Accordingly, ¥95,000 million and 50% are mechanical progress benchmarks. Failure to reach them alone should not be taken as evidence that the full-year plan will be missed; they need to be viewed alongside the prior-year first-half ratio and the seasonality assumed by the company.

After 1Q, the amounts remaining under the full-year forecasts were ¥145,424 million of revenue, ¥51,612 million of EBITDA and ¥50,319 million of operating profit. The 1Q materials stated that revenue exceeded plan, while expenses also exceeded plan, but did not disclose the actual variance from the initial plan or the quarterly breakdown of the revenue and profit required to meet the 2Q cumulative targets. Next time, it will be necessary to assess not only H1 results but also how the company re-explains the revenue and EBITDA amounts remaining for the second half.

The 1Q earnings summary stated that the full-year forecasts had not been revised, and the supplementary materials reiterated FY2027 forecasts of ¥190,000 million in revenue, ¥64,800 million in operating profit and ¥66,500 million in EBITDA. At the next results announcement, the key points will be whether the H1 cumulative progress rates, any changes to the full-year forecasts, and the variance between revenue exceeding plan and expenses exceeding plan are disclosed numerically. These will distinguish a simple revenue growth trend from the likelihood of achieving the full-year targets.