Can the full-year plan, revised upward, be achieved by Q3?

For the first half of the fiscal year ending December 2026, revenue was ¥10,023 million, operating profit was ¥2,949 million, ordinary profit was ¥3,151 million, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥2,123 million, representing year-on-year increases of 27.3%, 62.7%, 142.9% and 251.0%, respectively. In August, the full-year forecast was also revised upward to revenue of ¥22,238 million, operating profit of ¥6,754 million, ordinary profit of ¥6,888 million and net profit of ¥4,618 million.

However, progress against the full-year forecast at the first-half stage was 45.1% for revenue and 43.7% for operating profit, below the 50% implied by the passage of six months. Achieving the full-year forecast requires an additional ¥12,215 million of revenue and ¥3,805 million of operating profit in the second half, implying a second-half operating margin of 31.2%. Since this requires a second-half margin above the first-half margin of 29.4%, the upward revision appears to reflect not merely first-half results but also an acceleration in the second half.

Calculating backward from the previous year's nine-month results, standalone FY2025-Q3 revenue was ¥4,605 million and operating profit was ¥1,386 million. In FY2026-Q3, the question is whether standalone revenue can exceed these levels and whether the operating margin can remain in the 30% range to support the required second-half profit. In particular, if standalone Q3 profit growth stalls, the profit burden required in Q4 will increase.

The first-half materials did not explicitly disclose progress against the full-year forecast or a standalone Q3 earnings forecast. In addition, order intake and order backlog were not disclosed, so the extent to which demand related to submarine cables and AI servers has already converted into revenue and profit can only be estimated from segment results and the company's explanations. In Q3, it will be necessary to check not only the simple progress benchmarks of nine-month revenue of ¥16,679 million and operating profit of ¥5,066 million, but also whether the full-year forecast is maintained or revised again and whether orders are carried over into Q4.