Acceleration in fourth-quarter sales is needed to meet the full-year forecast, while profit progress is ahead

Revenue for the nine months ended Q3 of the fiscal year ending September 2026 was ¥35,977 million, operating profit was ¥10,169 million, ordinary profit was ¥10,395 million and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥7,240 million. Progress against the full-year forecast was 72.0%, 78.2%, 79.4% and 79.6%, respectively. Profit progress was 6 to 8 percentage points ahead of revenue, indicating that profitability improvements from volume, regional and product mix were leading at this stage.

Working back from the gap to the full-year forecast, the amounts required in Q4 are ¥14,023 million in revenue, ¥2,831 million in operating profit, ¥2,705 million in ordinary profit and ¥1,860 million in net income. In Q4 of the previous year, revenue was ¥10,900 million, operating profit was ¥2,184 million, ordinary profit was ¥2,268 million and net income was ¥1,694 million. Accordingly, revenue and operating profit in this year's Q4 need to exceed the prior-year figures by approximately 28.7% and 29.6%, respectively. The revenue hurdle is particularly high, making the timing of shipments from the order backlog important.

Dividing the required operating profit of ¥2,831 million by the required revenue of ¥14,023 million gives a required fourth-quarter operating margin of approximately 20.2%. The operating margin for the nine months ended Q3 was approximately 28.3%, so there is room to achieve the target based on margin levels alone. However, if shipments of large machines are concentrated in Q4, quarterly margins may fluctuate depending on product mix and one-off expenses. It remains unconfirmed whether the high cumulative profitability will carry through to the full year.

At the next earnings announcement, it will be important to distinguish between explaining a revenue shortfall through an increase in the order backlog and actually achieving ¥14,023 million through shipments and customer acceptance. In addition, the FY2026 assessment will depend on whether the company again discloses the factors behind achieving ¥13,000 million in operating profit on a monetary basis, including foreign exchange, volume, product and regional mix, and exhibition expenses, and whether it revises its full-year forecast.