FY2026 full-year outlook: profit is running ahead as of Q3, with the outcome against revised guidance the focus

Q3 cumulative revenue for the fiscal year ending September 2026 was ¥27,126 million, up 35.4% year on year. Operating profit was ¥3,170 million, up 18.0%, and profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent was ¥2,184 million, up 34.7%. Revenue increased by ¥7,099 million from ¥20,027 million in the same period of the previous year, meaning that at least the top line and accounting operating profit were above the prior-year levels.

Q3 cumulative revenue represented 79.8% of the ¥34,000 million full-year revenue forecast, leaving required revenue of ¥6,874 million for Q4. Based on the progression from ¥8,019 million in Q1 to ¥17,739 million for the first half and ¥27,126 million for the first 3 quarters, the hurdle for reaching the full-year revenue forecast appears relatively low. However, Q3 operating profit of ¥3,170 million and the ¥3.0 billion forecast for operating profit before impairment and other items announced on 10 September use different accounting definitions. They should therefore not be treated as a straightforward forecast beat, and the adjustment items need to be reviewed.

In the earnings forecast revision announced on 10 September, the revenue forecast was left unchanged at ¥34.0 billion, while operating profit before impairment and other items was revised to ¥3.0 billion and profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent to ¥1.95 billion. Annual dividends of ¥160 were also indicated. Q3 cumulative profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥2.184 billion appears to exceed the revised full-year forecast, but full-year results will also include Q4 investment gains and losses, valuation gains and losses, impairment and taxes. The sustainability of the profit therefore requires separate verification.

At the next results announcement, the review will cover not only whether revenue reached ¥34.0 billion, but also the difference between ¥3.0 billion of operating profit before impairment and other items and accounting operating profit, the composition of the ¥1.95 billion in profit attributable to owners of the parent, and the approval and payment details of the ¥160 annual dividend. Because the earnings release did not provide numerical disclosure of the payout ratio or shareholder return policy, it will also be necessary to determine whether the current high level of returns is based on a temporary earnings revision or represents a continuing policy.