FY2026 full-year profitability depends on execution in the fourth quarter

Nine-month sales for the fiscal year ending September 2026 were ¥736.760 million, up 10.4% year on year. The full-year sales forecast is ¥971 million, putting progress at approximately 75.8%, slightly above the 75% expected after nine months. Sales alone are on plan, but operating loss was ¥21.653 million, ordinary loss was ¥19.657 million, and net loss attributable to owners of the parent was ¥20.655 million. Profitability therefore remains some distance from the full-year forecast.

Cumulative operating profit was ¥11.037 million in the first quarter, but fell to ¥0.864 million in the first half before turning into an operating loss of ¥21.653 million in the nine-month period. It is therefore difficult to assess the likelihood of full-year profitability based solely on the nine-month results. To achieve the full-year operating profit forecast of ¥2 million, the company will need to generate approximately ¥23.653 million in operating profit in the fourth quarter alone. Sales also need to increase by ¥234.240 million from the nine-month level to reach the full-year forecast, requiring not only higher sales but also sufficient margins through control of cost of sales and selling, general and administrative expenses.

The company plans to double the number of company-hosted large-scale events from 13 in the third quarter to 26 in the fourth quarter. This is a concrete measure for building sales and profit during the remaining period, but a higher number of events will not necessarily translate directly into profit. It will be necessary to assess attendee numbers, attendance rates on the day, sales per event, event operating costs and advertising expenses, and determine whether the additional sales from the increase in events exceeded the associated costs.

At the next earnings release, it will be important to confirm whether standalone fourth-quarter operating profit reached approximately ¥23.7 million and whether full-year sales reached ¥971 million, as well as whether the return to operating profitability resulted from a temporary concentration of events or from a revenue structure that can be replicated throughout the year. In particular, disclosure of the 26 fourth-quarter events, attendee numbers, attendance rates, and event-related cost of sales and advertising expenses will be key to assessing the quality of FY2026 profitability.