Q3 focus after the full-year upward revision: working through the remaining targets in line with seasonality

FY2026 H1 revenue was ¥5,417 million, operating profit was ¥815 million, ordinary profit was ¥800 million and interim net profit was ¥615 million. The full-year forecasts presented in August were ¥12,439 million in revenue, ¥1,874 million in operating profit, ¥1,819 million in ordinary profit and ¥1,400 million in net profit. Progress for revenue and operating profit was therefore approximately 43.5% in both cases. Although the elapsed period in the first half represents 50% of the fiscal year, the company raised its full-year forecasts on the grounds that first-half results and key KPIs exceeded the initial plan. It is therefore not a stage at which performance should be judged below target solely because it is below 50%.

On a quarterly basis, revenue and operating profit expanded from ¥1,922 million and ¥70 million, respectively, in Q1 to ¥3,495 million and ¥744 million in Q2. Q2 alone accounted for approximately 91% of first-half operating profit, reflecting the substantial impact of a progressive commission system in which sales are weighted toward Q2 and Q4. In Q3, it will therefore be necessary to disclose standalone quarterly revenue, gross profit and operating profit and assess whether the profit expansion in Q2 was one-off or whether sales and handovers in the second half are repeatable.

Subtracting first-half results from the revised full-year forecasts leaves ¥7,022 million in revenue and ¥1,059 million in operating profit to be generated in the second half. The company has explained that results are also weighted toward Q4, so cumulative Q3 revenue and operating profit falling short of 50% of the full-year forecasts, at ¥6,220 million and ¥937 million, respectively, would not immediately mean that the full-year targets will be missed. However, unless Q3 provides sufficient detail on the number of sales, handover timing and the outlook for selling inventory, reliance on Q4 alone to achieve the remaining amounts will increase.

The company says the upward revision rate for revenue was 15.4%, but it has not disclosed specific comparative figures before and after the revision or the amount of risk incorporated into the full-year forecasts. In Q3, we would like to confirm not only whether the full-year forecasts are maintained or revised again, but also the assumptions for the number of sales, gross margin and operating expenses required for the remaining period. The dividend forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2026 is also undecided at present, making any update to the capital allocation policy alongside earnings progress another point to watch.