Can FY2027-H1 exceed the simple half-year run rate against the full-year forecast?

In FY2027-Q1, revenue was ¥51,513 million, down 2.4% year on year, while operating profit was ¥3,853 million, down 8.2%. Meanwhile, profit attributable to owners of the parent increased 9.1% to ¥3,709 million. Progress against the full-year revenue forecast of ¥212,000 million was approximately 24.3%, while progress against the operating profit forecast of ¥12,900 million was approximately 29.9%, meaning that profit progress was ahead of revenue progress.

Using a simple 50% benchmark against the company’s full-year forecasts as the standard for H1, revenue would be ¥106,000 million, operating profit ¥6,450 million, ordinary profit ¥7,450 million and net profit ¥5,900 million. This is a mechanical run-rate assessment against the full-year forecasts, not a half-year plan presented by the company. The operating margin in Q1 was approximately 7.5%. Although operating profit progress was ahead of revenue progress, operating profit was ¥343 million lower than the ¥4,196 million recorded in the same period of the previous year.

Year on year, revenue declined from ¥52,769 million to ¥51,513 million, while operating profit declined from ¥4,196 million to ¥3,853 million. Accordingly, the H1 results should be assessed not only for progress against the full-year forecasts, but also for whether the recovery in sales volumes continues in Q2 and whether higher raw material and fuel prices are putting further pressure on profit. At present, the company has not disclosed numerical assumptions for H1 seasonality or the revenue and profit levels required in the second half.