The focus for 3Q after the upward revision is profit progress rather than revenue

Revenue for the six months of the fiscal year ending November 2026 was ¥2,604.606 million, up 32.2% year on year. Operating profit was ¥538.705 million, up 2,176.1%, ordinary profit was ¥530.231 million, and interim net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥660.847 million. The full-year forecasts at the end of the first quarter were revenue of ¥5,600 million, operating profit of ¥700 million, ordinary profit of ¥700 million, and net income of ¥850 million. At the end of the six months, these were revised upward to ¥5,650 million, ¥1,100 million, ¥1,130 million, and ¥1,200 million, respectively.

Progress against the revised full-year forecasts was approximately 46.1% for revenue, 48.9% for operating profit, and 55.0% for net income. Revenue is slightly behind the halfway point of the year, while operating profit is nearly halfway and net income is above halfway. The amounts still required to meet the full-year forecasts at the end of the six months were ¥3,045.394 million in revenue, ¥561.295 million in operating profit, and ¥539.153 million in net income.

Because the company has not provided sufficient disclosure on seasonality, 75% progress cannot be regarded as a formal benchmark that should be achieved. However, on a simple time-apportioned basis, the nine-month benchmarks are ¥4,237.5 million in revenue, ¥825 million in operating profit, and ¥900 million in net income. Based on the six-month results, the third quarter alone would need to generate approximately ¥1,633 million in revenue, ¥286 million in operating profit, and ¥239 million in net income. Whether these levels are exceeded will provide a minimum check on progress against the revised plan.

In the second quarter alone, revenue was ¥1.385 billion, adjusted EBITDA was ¥328 million, and operating profit was ¥303 million. Second-quarter operating profit alone accounted for more than half of the ¥538 million recorded for the six months. If profit generation continues at a similar level in the third quarter, operating-profit progress can remain ahead of revenue progress. However, the ¥400 million increase in the operating-profit forecast, from ¥700 million after the first quarter to ¥1,100 million, assumes continued growth and cost control in the second half. Accordingly, we should check not only the third-quarter results but also the basis on which the company is maintaining its forecasts.

At the next earnings announcement, it will be important to disclose revenue, operating profit, and net income separately for the third quarter alone and cumulatively, show progress against the revised forecasts, and explain how the company assesses the amount still required in the fourth quarter. The 75% figure is only a mechanical benchmark, but if results fall substantially short of it, the risk of another revision to the full-year forecasts and the reasons for the concentration of earnings in the second half will need to be examined.