A sharp recovery in fourth-quarter profit is needed to meet the full-year forecast

For the first nine months of the fiscal year ending September 2026, revenue was ¥46,075 million and operating profit was ¥6,895 million. Against the full-year forecasts of revenue of ¥65,000 million and operating profit of ¥11,400 million, the tracking rates were 70.9% and 60.5%, respectively. With 75% of the fiscal year elapsed, revenue was 4.1 percentage points and operating profit 14.5 percentage points below the respective tracking benchmarks.

On a simple calculation, achieving the full-year forecasts requires fourth-quarter revenue of ¥18,925 million and operating profit of ¥4,505 million. The operating margin for the first nine months was 15.0%, whereas the fourth-quarter margin implied by the required figures is 23.8%. This would mean significantly exceeding the full-year forecast operating margin of 17.5% in the fourth quarter alone.

In the previous fiscal year ending September 2025, full-year revenue was ¥64,724 million and operating profit was ¥11,075 million, while first-nine-month revenue was ¥47,283 million and operating profit was ¥8,008 million. The previous year's fourth-quarter results, calculated from these figures, were revenue of ¥17,441 million and operating profit of ¥3,067 million. To achieve the current forecasts, revenue therefore needs to increase by approximately 8.5% and operating profit by approximately 46.9% from the previous year's fourth quarter. The required increase in profit is particularly large, so a seasonal recovery in revenue alone may not be sufficient.

At the next earnings announcement, it will be necessary to check the fourth-quarter revenue and operating profit, as well as whether the operating margin rose to around 23.8%. The full-year forecasts were unchanged as of the third quarter, but if they are not achieved, it will be important to assess by segment whether the shortfall was due to insufficient recovery in the cosmetics business, a smaller decline in profit in the pharmaceutical and food business, or continued profit growth in the Other businesses.